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Winning on Sunday in the Lou

The place to talk Redbird Men's Basketball
gobirds85
Junior
Posts: 609
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 3:45 pm

Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:34 pm

Just taking a poll amongst what’s left of Redbird fans.

What is the likelihood of ISU winning the valley of death and receiving the coveted 14 seed?

I give the Birds a 12% chance.

And it’s that high because no one in this conference is worth a 💩.
ricohill
Senior
Posts: 1503
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:00 pm

Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:44 pm

http://barttorvik.com/tourneysim.php?co ... &year=2019

You can run a simulation. 7.2 percent chance.
gobirds85
Junior
Posts: 609
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 3:45 pm

Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:49 pm

ricohill wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:44 pm
http://barttorvik.com/tourneysim.php?co ... &year=2019

You can run a simulation. 7.2 percent chance.
See? I’m an optimist.
DWRedbird
Sophomore
Posts: 472
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:37 pm

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:53 am

Honestly, with how open the Valley is overall, we probably have as good a shot at winning the tourney as anyone. With what I have seen from this team, I wouldn't be surprised if we went and won it all. Then again I also wouldn't be surprised if we got beat by double digits in the first round, so there is that...
Trey_Guidry4three
Sophomore
Posts: 288
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:51 pm

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:54 am

Let's get my calculator out...um yes...of course 7.6575% chance
ISU FAN 1
Senior
Posts: 2428
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:04 pm

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:53 am

DWRedbird wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:53 am
Honestly, with how open the Valley is overall, we probably have as good a shot at winning the tourney as anyone. With what I have seen from this team, I wouldn't be surprised if we went and won it all. Then again I also wouldn't be surprised if we got beat by double digits in the first round, so there is that...
ISU isn’t exactly peaking. Need to start moving in the other direction soon. ISU hasn’t strung together 3-4 good efforts yet this season, IMO. Hard to believe that will magically happen in March at this point. Especially with a team that seems to routinely get out worked and out hustled. Dan just can’t seem to motivate this group. The only hope is that the 1 and done scenario can motivate these seniors, if indeed, they even want their careers to continue at that point. Some have certainly appeared to have checked out at times this year. This group hasn’t treated games with much importance, thus far, from my perspective. The urgency of a survive and advance format is the only hope to cling to at this point. More than anything, I think the regular season is about forming good habits, and this team has only developed bad habits. It’ll be hard to flip that switch in March. This team needs an intervention.
DWRedbird
Sophomore
Posts: 472
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:37 pm

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:13 am

ISU FAN 1 wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:53 am
DWRedbird wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:53 am
Honestly, with how open the Valley is overall, we probably have as good a shot at winning the tourney as anyone. With what I have seen from this team, I wouldn't be surprised if we went and won it all. Then again I also wouldn't be surprised if we got beat by double digits in the first round, so there is that...
ISU isn’t exactly peaking. Need to start moving in the other direction soon. ISU hasn’t strung together 3-4 good efforts yet this season, IMO. Hard to believe that will magically happen in March at this point. Especially with a team that seems to routinely get out worked and out hustled. Dan just can’t seem to motivate this group. The only hope is that the 1 and done scenario can motivate these seniors, if indeed, they even want their careers to continue at that point. Some have certainly appeared to have checked out at times this year. This group hasn’t treated games with much importance, thus far, from my perspective. The urgency of a survive and advance format is the only hope to cling to at this point. More than anything, I think the regular season is about forming good habits, and this team has only developed bad habits. It’ll be hard to flip that switch in March. This team needs an intervention.
I agree 100% with everything you've said here. My only thought is no one in the Valley is really pulling away. Loyola is probably the best top to bottom team in this league, and they haven't done much to make me think they are a lock for winning any game at all. This year is so weird because no one is any good, but someone has to win our tourney.
Redbirds4Life
Freshman
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:35 am

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:30 am

<0% we WIN on Sunday, there isn't a prayer that this group puts it together for 3 games in 3 days. This team is starting to look like they are ready for the season to end, and even though the Valley is bad this year, at least teams like Drake and Missouri State look hungry to win games. The effort that I was seeing about a month ago, seems night and day. I get that losing another game on a half courter sucks, but when a team comes out and looks like they did last night, that's on Dirty Dan. Whatever you are doing or saying to this group, is just not working. Now, if you asked if we get to Sunday, heck 85%. This has that feeling of another Sunday loss.

FWIW, with the way the MVC season has gone for everyone, the fact that Bradley is coming in off a high and we are on a low, and they beat us earlier in the year, we are probably a lock to win Saturday now.
tpskult
Freshman
Posts: 61
Joined: Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:31 pm

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:43 am

DWRedbird wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:13 am
ISU FAN 1 wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:53 am
DWRedbird wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:53 am
Honestly, with how open the Valley is overall, we probably have as good a shot at winning the tourney as anyone. With what I have seen from this team, I wouldn't be surprised if we went and won it all. Then again I also wouldn't be surprised if we got beat by double digits in the first round, so there is that...
ISU isn’t exactly peaking. Need to start moving in the other direction soon. ISU hasn’t strung together 3-4 good efforts yet this season, IMO. Hard to believe that will magically happen in March at this point. Especially with a team that seems to routinely get out worked and out hustled. Dan just can’t seem to motivate this group. The only hope is that the 1 and done scenario can motivate these seniors, if indeed, they even want their careers to continue at that point. Some have certainly appeared to have checked out at times this year. This group hasn’t treated games with much importance, thus far, from my perspective. The urgency of a survive and advance format is the only hope to cling to at this point. More than anything, I think the regular season is about forming good habits, and this team has only developed bad habits. It’ll be hard to flip that switch in March. This team needs an intervention.
I agree 100% with everything you've said here. My only thought is no one in the Valley is really pulling away. Loyola is probably the best top to bottom team in this league, and they haven't done much to make me think they are a lock for winning any game at all. This year is so weird because no one is any good, but someone has to win our tourney.
Loyola plays well at home. Take them away from Gentile and they are about as meh as the rest of the league.
ChiRedbirdfan
Senior
Posts: 1798
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:48 pm

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:13 am

tpskult wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:43 am
DWRedbird wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:13 am
ISU FAN 1 wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:53 am


ISU isn’t exactly peaking. Need to start moving in the other direction soon. ISU hasn’t strung together 3-4 good efforts yet this season, IMO. Hard to believe that will magically happen in March at this point. Especially with a team that seems to routinely get out worked and out hustled. Dan just can’t seem to motivate this group. The only hope is that the 1 and done scenario can motivate these seniors, if indeed, they even want their careers to continue at that point. Some have certainly appeared to have checked out at times this year. This group hasn’t treated games with much importance, thus far, from my perspective. The urgency of a survive and advance format is the only hope to cling to at this point. More than anything, I think the regular season is about forming good habits, and this team has only developed bad habits. It’ll be hard to flip that switch in March. This team needs an intervention.
I agree 100% with everything you've said here. My only thought is no one in the Valley is really pulling away. Loyola is probably the best top to bottom team in this league, and they haven't done much to make me think they are a lock for winning any game at all. This year is so weird because no one is any good, but someone has to win our tourney.
Loyola plays well at home. Take them away from Gentile and they are about as meh as the rest of the league.
What Loyola has going for them is the return of a key cog in Williamson ... likely back after another 2 or 3 games? He brings good defense, some offense and a high bbiq
ChiRedbirdfan
Senior
Posts: 1798
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:48 pm

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:25 am

DWRedbird wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:13 am
ISU FAN 1 wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:53 am
DWRedbird wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:53 am
Honestly, with how open the Valley is overall, we probably have as good a shot at winning the tourney as anyone. With what I have seen from this team, I wouldn't be surprised if we went and won it all. Then again I also wouldn't be surprised if we got beat by double digits in the first round, so there is that...
ISU isn’t exactly peaking. Need to start moving in the other direction soon. ISU hasn’t strung together 3-4 good efforts yet this season, IMO. Hard to believe that will magically happen in March at this point. Especially with a team that seems to routinely get out worked and out hustled. Dan just can’t seem to motivate this group. The only hope is that the 1 and done scenario can motivate these seniors, if indeed, they even want their careers to continue at that point. Some have certainly appeared to have checked out at times this year. This group hasn’t treated games with much importance, thus far, from my perspective. The urgency of a survive and advance format is the only hope to cling to at this point. More than anything, I think the regular season is about forming good habits, and this team has only developed bad habits. It’ll be hard to flip that switch in March. This team needs an intervention.
I agree 100% with everything you've said here. My only thought is no one in the Valley is really pulling away. Loyola is probably the best top to bottom team in this league, and they haven't done much to make me think they are a lock for winning any game at all. This year is so weird because no one is any good, but someone has to win our tourney.
if that is true... “every university has an equal chance of winning” then at best Thursday night teams have a 6.25 % chance of winning and all others have an 12.5 % chance of winning. (I believe I used the right logic and that is the corresponding percentages? ) So regardless not looking good for any team but definitely stay out of the Thursday night games as that halves a teams chances. Either way don’t get too excited about winning in STL.
User avatar
RicoBryson
Freshman
Posts: 91
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 1:12 pm
Location: Alabama

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:27 am

As weird as this season has been with high expectations from Senior leadership to playing very poorly at times, to playing rather well at times, I could see us winning Sunday. And I predict we win on a half court bankshot. Then in our first round Big Dance game, we lose on a half court bankshot. But it would be #worthit
Markku Larkio.
SgtHulka
Senior
Posts: 1472
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:41 pm

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:34 am

RicoBryson wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:27 am
As weird as this season has been with high expectations from Senior leadership to playing very poorly at times, to playing rather well at times, I could see us winning Sunday. And I predict we win on a half court bankshot. Then in our first round Big Dance game, we lose on a half court bankshot. But it would be #worthit
:clap:
Redbird82
Freshman
Posts: 58
Joined: Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:12 pm

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:39 am

I wouldn’t bet much on winning it all in St Louis. But I disagree with not putting together 3-4 good efforts. Before this losing streak, they beat INSU, Drake and Loyola in a row. That is actually a plausible qtr semi and final down there.
Birdman07
Freshman
Posts: 176
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:33 am

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:11 am

I highly doubt this team can win 3 in a row in the Lou.
ricohill
Senior
Posts: 1503
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:00 pm

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:23 am

ISU FAN 1 wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:53 am
DWRedbird wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:53 am
Honestly, with how open the Valley is overall, we probably have as good a shot at winning the tourney as anyone. With what I have seen from this team, I wouldn't be surprised if we went and won it all. Then again I also wouldn't be surprised if we got beat by double digits in the first round, so there is that...
ISU isn’t exactly peaking. Need to start moving in the other direction soon. ISU hasn’t strung together 3-4 good efforts yet this season, IMO. Hard to believe that will magically happen in March at this point. Especially with a team that seems to routinely get out worked and out hustled. Dan just can’t seem to motivate this group. The only hope is that the 1 and done scenario can motivate these seniors, if indeed, they even want their careers to continue at that point. Some have certainly appeared to have checked out at times this year. This group hasn’t treated games with much importance, thus far, from my perspective. The urgency of a survive and advance format is the only hope to cling to at this point. More than anything, I think the regular season is about forming good habits, and this team has only developed bad habits. It’ll be hard to flip that switch in March. This team needs an intervention.
Outside of 16-17, isn't this pretty much the story of every Muller team (maybe the 14-15 season)?
Adunk33
Senior
Posts: 2193
Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:08 am

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:52 am

Here is what we have going for us. When Creighton left, it seemed pretty clear ILST fans traveled the best to STL outside of WSU. We last year, we had a home court advantage, which is why we took it to INST and SIU in close games. I expect the same thing this year, which gives us a chance. The home teams seems to have the nod so far in the league.
Birdfriend72
Sophomore
Posts: 256
Joined: Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:36 am

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:25 pm

Adunk33 wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:52 am
Here is what we have going for us. When Creighton left, it seemed pretty clear ILST fans traveled the best to STL outside of WSU. We last year, we had a home court advantage, which is why we took it to INST and SIU in close games. I expect the same thing this year, which gives us a chance. The home teams seems to have the nod so far in the league.
I would typically agree with you. We couldn't beat Valpo out home...so I'm not going to get to excited about home court advantage.
goredbirds4
Freshman
Posts: 27
Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:57 am

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:50 pm

Birdfriend72 wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:25 pm
Adunk33 wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:52 am
Here is what we have going for us. When Creighton left, it seemed pretty clear ILST fans traveled the best to STL outside of WSU. We last year, we had a home court advantage, which is why we took it to INST and SIU in close games. I expect the same thing this year, which gives us a chance. The home teams seems to have the nod so far in the league.
I would typically agree with you. We couldn't beat Valpo out home...so I'm not going to get to excited about home court advantage.
I'd say being 5-1 at home in conference is an advantage! Especially at 2-5 on the road. Clearly there is some advantage to being at home.
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