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Win Last 2... are we in?

The place to talk Redbird Football

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CCRedbirds
Freshman
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Location: STL

Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:33 pm

if we win the last 2 are we in?

TheTruth
Freshman
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Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:46 pm

CCRedbirds wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:33 pm
if we win the last 2 are we in?
No, probably not. The St X. game was stupid, was lazy, was indicative of the Lyons' years, but it's not the only reason we don't deserve to get in this .year. We need to retool the athletic dept and find a leader who can both fundraise and make financially prudent decisions. Larry is terrible at the former and great at the latter. It is disgraceful how short of its potential this athletic dept continually falls.

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RBFANTOO
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Sun Nov 04, 2018 7:31 am

CCRedbirds wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:33 pm
if we win the last 2 are we in?
NO! Hell NO!!!!
Redbird Nation Rising

Santa Cason
Sophomore
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Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:22 am

Maybe.

Do I think this team deserves to be in the playoffs? No. I’ve said it in other threads that our resume is pretty weak.

However, the bubble is awful this year. A lot of teams with the same problems as ISU, so who knows what happens if they win the final two games.

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StLRedbird
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Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:41 pm

Sagarin has us #5. UNI is #4, so we switched spots. Y'all need to take a step back from the ledge.

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Total Red
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Sun Nov 04, 2018 3:29 pm

StLRedbird wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:41 pm
Sagarin has us #5. UNI is #4, so we switched spots. Y'all need to take a step back from the ledge.
Thanks for being the Get Back coach. We got in at 6-5 in '16. If we win the last two we definitely have a chance to get in this time.

rdt99
Freshman
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:37 am

The at large field is really lacking this year. We do have a fairly good chance to get in if we win both games. Neither will be easy wins.

fourthandshort
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:42 am

we are definitely on the bubble. By season end, both SDSU and UNI will be top 10 .. they both have easy games left and should close out well. So 3 of our 4 losses will be to teams ranked #1 NDSU (11-0) by 14 on road, then probably #6 SDSU (8-2) by 10 at home, then probably, #10 UNI (7-4) by 10 on road. Our one weak loss was by 3 to MoST on road. And we beat an FBS convincingly, a good WIU team by 17 (got some help at end), destroyed SIU worse than most teams.

So I agree we don't look a playoff team at moment, but we just played 3 very tough teams, 2 on the road. And it wasn't like NDSU or SDSU steamrolled us up and down the field .. both games were close statistically .. UNI was a beatdown every way you look at it .. but losing by an average of 11 points to 3 likely top 10 teams .. 2 of of which will be top 8 seeds, will not be a death sentence for our playoff hopes. And 1 weak 3 point loss shouldn't by itself either. We had 3 of those in 2016 and still got it with an FBS win.

The STX game might be what kills us .. but we are in the discussion if we close out with 2 good wins.
Redbird Nation Rising ... Fans and donors need to get on board !!

MadBird
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:26 am

fourthandshort wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:42 am
we are definitely on the bubble. By season end, both SDSU and UNI will be top 10 .. they both have easy games left and should close out well. So 3 of our 4 losses will be to teams ranked #1 NDSU (11-0) by 14 on road, then probably #6 SDSU (8-2) by 10 at home, then probably, #10 UNI (7-4) by 10 on road. Our one weak loss was by 3 to MoST on road. And we beat an FBS convincingly, a good WIU team by 17 (got some help at end), destroyed SIU worse than most teams.

So I agree we don't look a playoff team at moment, but we just played 3 very tough teams, 2 on the road. And it wasn't like NDSU or SDSU steamrolled us up and down the field .. both games were close statistically .. UNI was a beatdown every way you look at it .. but losing by an average of 11 points to 3 likely top 10 teams .. 2 of of which will be top 8 seeds, will not be a death sentence for our playoff hopes. And 1 weak 3 point loss shouldn't by itself either. We had 3 of those in 2016 and still got it with an FBS win.

The STX game might be what kills us .. but we are in the discussion if we close out with 2 good wins.
Hey, it's the Kool-Aid man, back again . . . .

St. X won their final game and clinched their conference title and a playoff spot. They're ranked in the top 20 NAIA. So, it's not exactly like we defeated Little Sisters of the Poor. Little Brothers maybe, but, hey, you know . . . . :lol: Is there a Kool-Aid emoji somewhere???

I have more confidence we can beat the Pelini St. Penguins at home than the unpredictable Sycamores at Terre Haute. InSU is as schizo as the Birds - and there are a lot of similarities. They beat DII Quincy to compare to our St. X win. We both beat EIU, tho they did it on the road. They lost to Louisville and we beat CSU, both FBS teams with losing records. We both lost to UNI, tho it was at Terre Haute for them. They took SDSU to OT at Brookings, tho, where we folded up at home. We both lost to MSU, and beat SIU. InSU beat So. Dakota Saturday in 3OT's, at home, but the Yotes are 3-6. Prolly compares to our win vs. WIU, altho the Necks are 5-4.

So, it's sort of hanging out there for the Birds, knuckle down and take a road game and come home to senior day vs. a team with a losing record (prolly 3-7 by then, they host UNI Saturday) and you maybe play your way in. InSU probably figgers they can make the playoffs if they finish up by trashing us and WIU to close the season. So, it's playoff football already as they say.

Wish this Redbird team inspired more confidence. They should watch the film of the CSU game a few times this week to get the mojo back!!

fourthandshort
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:51 am

As for QB position .. Houston, we have a problem. This was not the Kolbe I expected to see and not the guy we saw as a Sophomore. or even in August camp. The 2 picks were all on him .. he just was not seeing the field well. In 2016, he led MVFC in least picks by far .. 3 picks in 8 MVFC games, and just 6 picks for season. As much as I have touted him and believed he should have had the job coming out of camp, or at least platooned ... he did not look ready for his moment to show what he could do.

So I'm not sure what answer is at this point ... but if Kolbe has lost his confidence, we have no choice but to stick it out with Davis and make it work. I don't think it is time to experiment with 3rd stringer. Got to go with Davis and put him in position to succeed. But it isn't all on the QB, teams have clearly figured out how to attack and confuse our OL .. putting aside slow start at MoST, since WIU, they have regressed and looked like they did a year ago. They need to man up here ... they aren't a bunch of newbies and injured like last year. There are no excuses this year.

As for OC Beathard .. hard to say how much is on him or not. He has to call plays given his personnel. I do know he might be distracted .. his wife was recently diagnosed with cancer again and is currently in treatment. Don't want to make excuses, but that could be a factor. Also have to deal with a QB who is inaccurate and an OL that is regressing against better competition.

Anyway, we're still in the hunt .. need to solve the OL issues first, and then figure out how to put our QB in best position to succeed. If Davis is healthy, and Kolbe doesn't snap out of his funk, have to go with Davis.
Redbird Nation Rising ... Fans and donors need to get on board !!

topiarydan
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:28 am

Obviously we need to win out. Assuming we do then 7-4 with losses to NDSt, SDSt (both top 5 teams by end of year) along with UNI and MSU will still get us in. I see MVC with a minimum 4 most likely 5 teams in

Remember we beat Colorado State, Western beat NIU, Northern Iowa should have beaten Iowa State, etc

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Redbirdwarrior
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:53 am

We didnt just get beat by the playoff teams we played, we weren't in their league.

At the end of the day, the committee is going to see 6-5 with a win over 3-6 (at that point, probably 4-7) Colorado St and 5 unranked FCS teams while our games against UNI, SDSU and the Bison all resulted in us getting our teeth kicked in.

Your hopes of making the tournament at this point sit on the shoulders of Colorado St and them somehow going 3-0 to end the season (including a win vs #14 Utah St).

Just don't see it.

That said, it was Davis' first year under center and I expect bigger things next season.

fourthandshort
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:19 pm

Redbirdwarrior wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:53 am
We didnt just get beat by the playoff teams we played, we weren't in their league.

At the end of the day, the committee is going to see 6-5 with a win over 3-6 (at that point, probably 4-7) Colorado St and 5 unranked FCS teams while our games against UNI, SDSU and the Bison all resulted in us getting our teeth kicked in.

Your hopes of making the tournament at this point sit on the shoulders of Colorado St and them somehow going 3-0 to end the season (including a win vs #14 Utah St).

Just don't see it.

That said, it was Davis' first year under center and I expect bigger things next season.
agreed ... at 6-5, which is 5-5, we have zero chance of playoff bid. The premise and title of thread is "Win Last 2 .. are we in ?".
Redbird Nation Rising ... Fans and donors need to get on board !!

ricohill
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:12 pm

Obviously, they look at your SOS nationally, but I would think having the 7th ranked schedule in the league might hurt when the committee looks at ISU?

It seems to me that St. Xavier game keeps dragging us down. It doesn't count as a win, but takes down our SOS.


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isuquinndog
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:33 pm

I haven't been reading close. Is Davis healthy? I know there were questions after the SDSU game.
LET'S WIN THIS GAME!

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StLRedbird
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:01 pm

ricohill wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:12 pm
Obviously, they look at your SOS nationally, but I would think having the 7th ranked schedule in the league might hurt when the committee looks at ISU?

It seems to me that St. Xavier game keeps dragging us down. It doesn't count as a win, but takes down our SOS.

Little point of order needed here. That's #7 SoS in FCS, and #6 in the Valley. Speaks to the strength of the league, I think.

ricohill
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:09 pm

StLRedbird wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:01 pm
ricohill wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:12 pm
Obviously, they look at your SOS nationally, but I would think having the 7th ranked schedule in the league might hurt when the committee looks at ISU?

It seems to me that St. Xavier game keeps dragging us down. It doesn't count as a win, but takes down our SOS.

Little point of order needed here. That's #7 SoS in FCS, and #6 in the Valley. Speaks to the strength of the league, I think.
Good catch. I did not look close enough.

cpacmel
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:15 pm

ricohill wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:12 pm
It seems to me that St. Xavier game keeps dragging us down. It doesn't count as a win, but takes down our SOS.
Um no. The St. Xavier game does NOT factor into our SOS.

ricohill
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:04 pm

cpacmel wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:15 pm
ricohill wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:12 pm
It seems to me that St. Xavier game keeps dragging us down. It doesn't count as a win, but takes down our SOS.
Um no. The St. Xavier game does NOT factor into our SOS.
I could be way off, but I do think it factors into Massey's SOS formula. St. Xavier is ranked 377 out of all college football teams.

I think it is why we have much better overall and SOS numbers in Sagarin's than Massey's because they don't rank NAIA teams.

Massey ratings have nothing to do with the NCAA selection, I was just saying that because of the tweet. Which I made a mistake thinking that was only MVFC rankings.

cpacmel
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Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:28 pm

The SOS that the committee uses does not factor in non D1 games.

Here’s a good one:

http://warrennolan.com/football1aa/2018/sos

In the committee’s eyes the game never took place.

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