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If this happens, are we in?

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Seeing Red
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Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:15 pm

Alright, here's my thought on the possible playoff scenario. Right wrong or indifferent I get the feeling that the selection committee is tired of the MVFC and our success as a conference. That said, I think we get 5 not 6, which means it could come to this. South Dakota loses at home to SDSU next week (after getting crushed by NDSU the week before) making that 3 losses in a row for them. Not exactly a picture of playoff momentum. We play lights out and beat the Bizon to go 7-4 same record as South Dakota. It comes down to us and South Dakota, where we have the edge having played SDSU to OT at their place and beating NDSU at our place and most importantly, beating South Dakota head-to-head. All of this is fresh in the committee's collective heads. I know it's a big ask in beating NDSU, but it could be done and if we come.out with energy and motivation we had at SDSU and play as hard as we did, it gives us a chance to create this narrative. What do you think?

cpacmel
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Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:20 pm

I've said it all along, 7-4 and we are in. Doesn't matter the score either. Doesn't matter what UNI does or South Dakota or anyone else.

ekeyfanclub
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Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:25 pm

cpacmel wrote:
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:20 pm
I've said it all along, 7-4 and we are in. Doesn't matter the score either. Doesn't matter what UNI does or South Dakota or anyone else.
:text-+1:

fourthandshort
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Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:00 pm

So what if ... this only matters if we beat NDSU

ISU (7-4) beats NDSU (9-2)
UNI (7-4) beats InSU .. no way UNI loses this game, especially at home
USD (8-3) beats SDSU (8-3) .. coin flip with USD at home
WIU (8-3) beats SIU .. very likely WIU at home
YSU (6-5) beats MoST

We'll have a 9-2, three 8-3 teams, two 7-4 teams ... do we get 6 playoff teams ? or does committee flip a coin between UNI and ISU to give MVFC just 5 teams

Or flip one game ... SDSU (9-2) beats USD (7-4)

Then we'll have two 9-2 teams, two 8-3 teams, and three 7-4 teams .. both ISU and UNI beat USD, plus USD lost 4 of 5 to finish season, while UNI and ISU have gotten better.
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StLRedbird
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:05 am

ekeyfanclub wrote:
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:25 pm
cpacmel wrote:
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:20 pm
I've said it all along, 7-4 and we are in. Doesn't matter the score either. Doesn't matter what UNI does or South Dakota or anyone else.
:text-+1:
:text-+1: :text-+1:

fourthandshort
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:43 am

Is USD and UNI win ... and they don't want to give MVFC 6 teams .. I think we are out, even though we clearly deserve a bid at 7-4.

We need USD or UNI to lose before I'm comfortable saying were in if we neat NDSU .. much stranger things have happened with that committee. UNI will not lose .. we want USD to lose to SDSU.
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RBFANTOO
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:18 am

StLRedbird wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:05 am
ekeyfanclub wrote:
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:25 pm
cpacmel wrote:
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:20 pm
I've said it all along, 7-4 and we are in. Doesn't matter the score either. Doesn't matter what UNI does or South Dakota or anyone else.
:text-+1:
:text-+1: :text-+1:
:text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1:
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gobirds85
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:30 am

cpacmel wrote:
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:20 pm
I've said it all along, 7-4 and we are in. Doesn't matter the score either. Doesn't matter what UNI does or South Dakota or anyone else.
^^^^^What he said.

ChiRedbirdfan
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:34 am

fourthandshort wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:43 am
Is USD and UNI win ... and they don't want to give MVFC 6 teams .. I think we are out, even though we clearly deserve a bid at 7-4.

We need USD or UNI to lose before I'm comfortable saying were in if we neat NDSU .. much stranger things have happened with that committee. UNI will not lose .. we want USD to lose to SDSU.
:text-+1:
Agree there is a possibility where there are not enough at large bids, if USD and UNI both win along with some other bubble teams winning , where ISU could understandably be left out at 7-4.
Last edited by ChiRedbirdfan on Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

fourthandshort
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:39 am

Committee is giving more love than deserved to bubble teams coming out of Big Sky, CAA, and Southern .. bubble seems both bigger and weaker, meaning there are more teams flirting with bubble in committees eyes.

If ever there were a year that any conference deserved 6 teams, it is the 2017 MVFC ... but until I see it happen, I'm a skeptic. We need USD to lose at home to SDSU to ensure we are in if we beat NDSU. Otherwise, if USD and UNI both win, we 100% need committee to select 6 teams from MVFC or there is good chance we are out .... 100% WRONGLY out, but out.

These idiots have NC A&T in top 10 !!!!!!

AD Lyons and Patty V better be advocating for MVFC .. and whomever our FCS committee rep is this year .. anyone know who from MVFC ?? MVFC deserves 6 teams this year !!
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fourthandshort
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:53 am

Found this on Wikipedia .. couldn't find on NCAA, so not sure if this is current or not.

The current committee chairman is Mark Wilson (Tennessee Tech) .. might explain JSU moving ahead of NDSU last week ... both teams were 9-1, with NDFSU not only playing a much tougher schedule, but also winning twice as much on average ... yet the committee move JSU to #2 and NDSU to #5, because NDSU lost their 1st game of year on road to another top 8 team (SDSU) .. and JSU beat yet another patsy.

The others who serve on the selection committee are Chuck Burch (Gardner–Webb), Troy Dannen (Northern Iowa), Brian Hutchinson (Morehead State), Richard Johnson (Wofford), Nathan Pine (Holy Cross), Marty Scarano (New Hampshire), Paul Schlickmann (Central Connecticut State), Dr. Brad Teague (Central Arkansas) and Jeff Tingey (Idaho State).

The UNH guy carries lot of weight . .UNH has gotten some undeserved love a couple times, and so has CAA.

Lyons and Patty V need to be advocating to Troy Dannen for MVFC getting 6 teams this year. Might as well hit up PFL guy Brian Hutchinson, since Patty runs PFL too.
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cpacmel
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:14 am

fourthandshort wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:53 am
Lyons and Patty V need to be advocating to Troy Dannen for MVFC getting 6 teams this year. Might as well hit up PFL guy Brian Hutchinson, since Patty runs PFL too.
Dannen has been the AD at Tulane for almost a year. Not gonna do any good advocating anything to him these days. :shock:

cpacmel
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:17 am

fourthandshort wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:43 am
Is USD and UNI win ... and they don't want to give MVFC 6 teams .. I think we are out, even though we clearly deserve a bid at 7-4.
4th, my good friend! I’m gonna need you to pick a lane please! :ugeek:
Huge game for my Redbirds ... win, and we should be lock for playoffs. lose and 90% likely out. But if we lose competitive game to NDSU, i think our resume deserves an at large .. with big wins over USD, YSU, and tough losses to SDSU and NDSU. Our SOS is worth at least 1 game ... that is 6-5 against top 10 SOS is arguably as good or better than 7-4 against 40th ranked SOS, and even 8-3 against 60th ranked SOS.
I know your conflicted. But the daily flip flopping? What changed from yesterday?

fourthandshort
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:07 am

cpacmel wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:17 am
fourthandshort wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:43 am
Is USD and UNI win ... and they don't want to give MVFC 6 teams .. I think we are out, even though we clearly deserve a bid at 7-4.
4th, my good friend! I’m gonna need you to pick a lane please! :ugeek:
Huge game for my Redbirds ... win, and we should be lock for playoffs. lose and 90% likely out. But if we lose competitive game to NDSU, i think our resume deserves an at large .. with big wins over USD, YSU, and tough losses to SDSU and NDSU. Our SOS is worth at least 1 game ... that is 6-5 against top 10 SOS is arguably as good or better than 7-4 against 40th ranked SOS, and even 8-3 against 60th ranked SOS.
I know your conflicted. But the daily flip flopping? What changed from yesterday?
hah ! .. simply the gradual realization .. I think I missed my coffee for the earlier post .... that not only could we be reasonably viewed as 6th team from MVFC, with UNI squarely back in top 5 MVFC picture .. combined with the vibe I'm getting from selection committee with their top 10 reports the last 2 weeks.

again, I still believe if we won last or this week, and finished 7-4, we deserve a bid, period. Just not feeling like MVFC will get 6 teams like it should .. assuming we win this week. So just not feeling good going into game 11, if UNI and USD both win.
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cpacmel
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:16 pm

fourthandshort wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:07 am
Just not feeling like MVFC will get 6 teams like it should .. assuming we win this week. So just not feeling good going into game 11, if UNI and USD both win.
So if we win and they both win, who beat NDSU? What's the value of that in the last week of the regular season? Especially with the Bison playing for a conference title and a top 3-4 seed!

Adunk33
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:37 pm

I have not read a post on this thread, only the title. But the only rational thing would be.. "If this happens, are we in," "this" would be referring to beating NDSU and the answer is yes, we are in. If "this" refers to losing to NDSU the answer is no, we are not in.

The only game that matters for us Saturday is Birds vs Bizon. It's like the people who think the basketball team can ever get an at-large... yeah, maybe they can, but why leave it up to chance or outside influence. Take care of business and win Saturday. As it has been all season, we control our destiny. Do not be like last year and put it into the hands of the committee.

fourthandshort
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:30 pm

my whole concern is whether FCS committee will take 6 from MVFC, because they would have to in following realitic scenario

If we win and the other games go as reasonably expected

- ISU ( 7-4, 5-3) beats NDSU (9-2, 6-2)
- USD (8-3, 5-3) beats SDSU (8-3, 5-3) at home ... 50/50 game ??
- UNI (7-4, 6-2) beats InSU at home ... 99% lock
- WIU (8-3, 5-3) beats SIU at home .. 98% lock

Committee would have to rank MVFC teams as follows, since we all played similar SOS's:

1. NDSU 9-2, 6-2

2t.. SDSU 8-3. 5-3

2t.. USD 8-3, 5-3

2t... WIU 8-3, 5-3

5t. UNI 7-4, 6-2 ... tied for 1st in MVFC; plus UNI has no weak losses, and have 1 FBS loss; so they are 7-3 against FCS - and they are hotter than we are to close season

5t. ISU 7-4, 5-3 .. tied for 3rd thru 6th in MVFC; we have 2 or 3 weak losses: (NAU, SIU, WIU by 17 at home)

Therefore, if above happens and committee only allows 5 teams from MVFC .. it could easily tip to UNI over ISU for 5th team.

No way UNI loses to InSU at home. So if MVFC is only getting 5 teams ... we need USD to lose to SDSU to ensure our at large bid, assuming we beat NDSU.

So who would ISU get in over of teams 1 to 5 ?
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Seeing Red
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:48 pm

As stated in my original post and I agree with 4th on the follow up by the way. I can completely see the committee forcing the MVFC to cannibalize our own in this year's selection. They have positioned and postured their thinking to force fitting 5 MVFC teams in this year's playoff and it will come down to either us or SD. If we win and if SD loses we are in and they are out. If we both win, I am afraid we are out as I do not see UNI and Western losing. UNI finishes as co champs in the best conference in FCS and we finish 5th...their finish will take precedence over ours. That said, I think SDSU beats SD making it three losses in a row for SD.

ST_Lawson
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:16 pm

fourthandshort wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:30 pm
my whole concern is whether FCS committee will take 6 from MVFC, because they would have to in following realitic scenario
Hi guys, hope you don't mind me chiming in on things. My personal (non-expert) feeling on this is that if the Redbirds win, they're in.

You'd have beaten NDSU and USD, took SDSU to OT on their home turf, went 2-1 OOC with the loss being to currently 7-3 Northern Arizona (could be 8-3 if they beat Southern Utah next weekend). Yes, you lost to SIU...which is the one big "knock" against you, but if the committee is paying attention at all, they'll realize that SIU's QB Straub is a great passing QB and with him healthy all season, they're likely a 6-5 or 7-4 team. He did better against you guys than Taryn Christion or Case Cookus did.

As for taking 6 from the MVFC, I don't think the committee really looks that closely at how many teams they're bringing from each conference. It's more about individual teams, their records, and who they played (and how well they played against them). If there's 6 worthy teams from the MVFC...6 will get it. Sure it's never happened before, but a 6-5 team had never gotten an at-large bid to the playoffs either before two years ago...until Western did it...and then last year...when you guys did it. If any conference is going to do it, it's ours.

My view:
NDSU, SDSU - in no matter what happens
USD - win and their in, lose and they're on the bubble
WIU - win and we're in, lose and we're probably one of the "last four in"
UNI and ILSU - win and are in, lose and are out

The biggest thing is going to be USD. If they beat SDSU, they're in. If they lose though...they'll be 7-4 finishing the season with 3-straight losses and 4 out of their last 5 as losses. YSU in 2013 did a similar thing, went 8-1, then lost three straight, finished 8-4 (12-game season) and missed out on the playoffs. The committee does seem to like momentum and doesn't like it if a team "backs into" the playoffs by losing their last few and being on the bubble.

Because of that situation with USD, I think that if ISU and USD both win (and assuming UNI and WIU both win), then we'll see 6 in it for the first time.
If ISU wins and USD loses, I think 7-4 ISU has a better claim on an at-large spot than 7-4 USD and you should get it and they may choose to leave USD out in favor of someone else.

So essentially...win and you're in.

Anyway, that's my view.
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Virginia Redbird
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:31 pm

It is fun reading all the posts and speculation. I have no idea what the selection committee will do. All that really matters is the Birds win this Saturday or it is all a moot point. That is a big task to beat the Bison but not impossible. The Birds are at home they are desperate. The Bison are in win or lose. Maybe that is the edge the Redbirds need to pull out an upset. Win this Saturday and I think the Redbirds are in...lose and they are definitely out in my mind. We shall see!
“When you have great players, playing great, well that’s great football!”
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