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fourthandshort
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Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:49 pm

TIMMY wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:14 pm
For crying out loud am I the only one who remembers the Jack Concannon, Bobby Douglass, Virgil Carter controversy? 1-13 I tell ya!
oh sure, but if they would have gone to 16 game regular season that year. I'm betting Bobby Douglas would have won the job outright and team would have rebounded to finish 3-13 ... so you're just not seeing the bigger picture and frankly a wee bit too impatient. Beside, I miss those Dooley-Gibron years ... think how many hall of fame draft picks those losses gave us !!

:D
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Redbird28
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Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:15 am

There may be a factor that absolutely no one is taking into account with regards to this entire QB discussion, and I understand why because as fans we are geared towards the absolute win now mentality.

Perhaps Davis is being given this shot because the coaching staff was never banking on this season being the season that we make a Frisco run, but rather that it's next year, and Davis will then have a full year of game action + projected playoff exposure to get completely acclimated to this first year under a new OC's system.

A quick look at the roster shows that we have 11 seniors. Now, I am in no way saying that the objective this year was just to get reps and take losses if they happen, but it occurs to me that long term the best thing for this program is the direction that the coaches decided to take this decision.

The defense's possibly earlier than expected arrival, coupled with the ultra stout run game, which I assume the coaching staff expected, has been enough to start this season 4-1. I suspect the coaches went in to this year with eyes wide open and expectations that we will win enough to make the playoff field if certain things broke right. So far, they have, and Davis is getting valuable game experience while still getting those W's. It may not be pretty thus far, but it's been effective.

The reality is that at the end of this season, Jake Kolbe will walk out the door and Brady Davis will still be here to lead this team.

I think it's entirely possible that the staff went in to this year figuring on winning enough games this season to get in to the playoff field with a solid run game that could control the ball, and a defense that would figure it out by season's end. If that plan panned out then the future of the program will be even stronger with Davis getting a full season of game action + possible playoff experience in year 1 of the new offense, and then subsequently be ready to lead next year's heavy upperclassman laden team (41 current projected juniors/RS juniors/seniors) on a deep run all the way to Frisco.
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TIMMY
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Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:57 am

fourthandshort wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:49 pm
TIMMY wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:14 pm
For crying out loud am I the only one who remembers the Jack Concannon, Bobby Douglass, Virgil Carter controversy? 1-13 I tell ya!
oh sure, but if they would have gone to 16 game regular season that year. I'm betting Bobby Douglas would have won the job outright and team would have rebounded to finish 3-13 ... so you're just not seeing the bigger picture and frankly a wee bit too impatient. Beside, I miss those Dooley-Gibron years ... think how many hall of fame draft picks those losses gave us !!

:D
I was at Abe's last game at the old, old Soldier Field. It was surreal. For sure the smallest crowd I've ever seen at a Bears game. They had a little band that sat in the corner of the field. Even they left early. But they left a mike on live. Some drunk went down, grabbed the mike and sang So Long It's Been Good To Know Ya for the entire stadium to hear. 2 weeks later Abe was gone.
Last edited by TIMMY on Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Redbirdwarrior
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Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:47 am

I'm very much liking where we are coming into the "meat" of our schedule.

We have the following games left:

VS SIU (1-4)
@ #1 NDSU (5-0)
VS #5 SDSU (3-1)
@ UNI (2-3)
@ InSU (2-3)
VS YSU (2-3)

With a win over a BCS in your pocket, you gotta win 3 of these for playoff consideration, 4 wins is a lock and probably a home game.

Do I think we slip up against UNI? Yes. Yes I do. But I also think we end up upsetting SDSU in 3 weeks.

I think ISU is on pace to finish this season 8-3 and probably be about #12 or #13 come playoff selection day.

Why? The defense. ISU is outscoring opponents 183-69 on the season. 183 is about middle of the pack, but 69 is second in the conference to the Bizon's 68. ISU has actually given up 8 LESS points in its conference games so far. If you eliminate the Ivy League (which is fair, since they are "special") and Colgate (who plays 0 teams much better than SXU all season), ISU's 69 points given up through 5 games is #2 in the country.

The offense has James Robinson, who I am 100% convinced is the next David Johnson, and an offensive line that eats people. Brady Davis will come along, but if we win while that is happening, even better.

If that kick isn't blocked and ISU is 5-0 right now, we are sitting at #2 and this game in 2 weeks is a national title preview. This team is INCREDIBLY good and I think we should expect to win every game. I guarantee you that game in 2 weeks will be the most difficult game NDSU plays this season and I COULD see out guys pulling the upset.

It is a great time to be a bird fan.

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Virginia Redbird
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Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:58 am

TIMMY wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:14 pm
For crying out loud am I the only one who remembers the Jack Concannon, Bobby Douglass, Virgil Carter controversy? 1-13 I tell ya!
I don't know if you can really call it a controversy when all three QBs really sucked.

Just kidding. I am old enough to remember it well. The Bears tied with the Steelers that year for the worst record and had a coin flip for the #1 draft pick. The Bears called heads and it landed tails. The Steelers won the toss and selected Terry Bradshaw with the #1 pick. The Bears ended up trading their #2 pick to the Packers (of all teams). A bit of NFL trivia...the only team the Bears beat that season was...the Steelers. Today the head to head win would have given the Bears the tie breaker and the #1 pick. Back then it was up to the toss of the coin. The Steelers Dynasty was started and the Bears did not get a decent QB until McMahon.

A little mindless trivia on a Monday afternoon. :D
“When you have great players, playing great, well that’s great football!”
John Madden

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Virginia Redbird
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Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:10 pm

saxman210 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:06 am

Has Davis thrown a pick yet? No. Is there room for improvement? Absolutely.
Well some people could make the argument that many of the passes Davis has thrown have been so far off target that neither the receiver or the defender had a snowballs chance in hell of even touching the ball let alone catching it ... but I will not make that argument.

I am still trying to get the Concannon, Douglas & Carter QB nightmare out of my memory!

:lol:
“When you have great players, playing great, well that’s great football!”
John Madden

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TIMMY
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Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:59 pm

Virginia Redbird wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:10 pm
I am still trying to get the Concannon, Douglas & Carter QB nightmare out of my memory!

:lol:
I went to the grocery store this morning and the song Ben was playing a little bit too loud. Now it's in my brain. :angry-screaming: Sorta the same.
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GOP_Redbird
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Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:09 pm

fourthandshort wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:28 pm
My concern with Davis was twofold... accuracy and unproven. We saw the accuracy issue in August when he completed just 48% of his passes to Kolbes 71%

Season starts .. ignoring STX scrimmage.. he has a strong 3 qtrs against EIU. He has a strong half against CSU. He has a strong 4th quarter against MoST. He had no strong qtrs against WIU. Maybe teams have figured him out the more tape there is. And we've yet to play the toughest defenses on our schedule. If we wait too long to get Kolbe some reps, we could waste entire season figuring out who our QB should be.

Maybe Davis rebounds from this .. maybe he doesn't. How many more games do we wait to start getting Kolbe ready. Wouldn't make sense to throw Kolbe into fire during the NDSU SDSU UNI stint. Get him ready now against team like SIU.
Kolbe had 3 years of game action to develop and that didn’t happen. Get over it.

fourthandshort
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Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:19 pm

GOP_Redbird wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:09 pm
fourthandshort wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:28 pm
My concern with Davis was twofold... accuracy and unproven. We saw the accuracy issue in August when he completed just 48% of his passes to Kolbes 71%

Season starts .. ignoring STX scrimmage.. he has a strong 3 qtrs against EIU. He has a strong half against CSU. He has a strong 4th quarter against MoST. He had no strong qtrs against WIU. Maybe teams have figured him out the more tape there is. And we've yet to play the toughest defenses on our schedule. If we wait too long to get Kolbe some reps, we could waste entire season figuring out who our QB should be.

Maybe Davis rebounds from this .. maybe he doesn't. How many more games do we wait to start getting Kolbe ready. Wouldn't make sense to throw Kolbe into fire during the NDSU SDSU UNI stint. Get him ready now against team like SIU.
Kolbe had 3 years of game action to develop and that didn’t happen. Get over it.
didn't realize it was so simple .. fact check coming

- he barely played in 2015
- in 2016, he finished in a virtual tie for 2nd in MVFC QBR .. and was # 1 by far in least lowest pick rate .. better than Christion, McGuire, Stick, Streveler,; though admittedly struggled in the pocket his fist year
- in 2017, his passing stats slipped considerably, though he improved in pocket ..

So when you say he had 3 years of game action .. he only had 2 years, and of those 2 years was quite good for first year starter. And the other year, almost everyone around him on offense sucked .. OL, WRs, and OC.

So he had 1 bad year .. along with everyone else on offense except the RB group.

So how long would you wait on Davis to figure this out ? Trend line is not good .. he has slipped every game and we haven't yet hit the meat of our schedule.
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saxman210
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Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:37 pm

fourthandshort wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:19 pm
GOP_Redbird wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:09 pm
fourthandshort wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:28 pm
My concern with Davis was twofold... accuracy and unproven. We saw the accuracy issue in August when he completed just 48% of his passes to Kolbes 71%

Season starts .. ignoring STX scrimmage.. he has a strong 3 qtrs against EIU. He has a strong half against CSU. He has a strong 4th quarter against MoST. He had no strong qtrs against WIU. Maybe teams have figured him out the more tape there is. And we've yet to play the toughest defenses on our schedule. If we wait too long to get Kolbe some reps, we could waste entire season figuring out who our QB should be.

Maybe Davis rebounds from this .. maybe he doesn't. How many more games do we wait to start getting Kolbe ready. Wouldn't make sense to throw Kolbe into fire during the NDSU SDSU UNI stint. Get him ready now against team like SIU.
Kolbe had 3 years of game action to develop and that didn’t happen. Get over it.
So how long would you wait on Davis to figure this out ? Trend line is not good .. he has slipped every game and we haven't yet hit the meat of our schedule.
I would wait until the guys that see him and Kolbe in practice everyday determine that there’s been enough regression to give Kolbe a shot.

Or I would wait until there’s been enough regression to warrant starting a “win now and don’t worry about the future senior” in place of getting game reps for a sophomore/junior who could be the guy next year and the year after.

Or I would wait until Davis throws a couple of picks on bad decisions, or gets sacked for 20+ yards by holding onto the ball too long repeatedly, decisions that cost us a game.

I’m so sick of this argument. Kolbe lost the starting position to Davis. Davis is healthy. Kolbe will be there IF the coaching staff think he gives us the best shot to win. To this point, other than one series, the coaching staff hasn’t seen enough negative out of Davis OR positive out of Kolbe to warrant a change.
BRMM 2003-2006

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Virginia Redbird
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Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:43 pm

saxman210 wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:37 pm
fourthandshort wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:19 pm
GOP_Redbird wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:09 pm

I’m so sick of this argument.


Actually, I thought that was the whole reason for this board. To exchange different opinions and see what the fanbase is thinking. If you are sick of the discussion...why participate any longer?
The Coaching staff is sticking with Davis but that means pretty much zero to me. Brian Kelly stuck with Winbush instead of Book until the lack of any consistent offense for the Irish forced his hand. So what did Kelly see in Winbush while he refused to start Book? I don't know and I also don't know why the Redbird coaching staff is making the decisions they make.
In the end, I believe the QB gets too much blame when the teams lose and too much credit when they win. Last season Kolbe took a bunch of heat but the entire offense stunk with the exception of some running back performances and Schnell. The offensive coaching staff was so putrid that Spack cleaned the offensive house after the season. Could Kolbe do any better with this team? Who knows unless he gets on the field.
I do know this. The really tough part of the schedule is coming up like a runaway freight train and if Davis does not raise his level of play and be consistent nobody will have to worry anymore about the game with StX keeping the Birds out of the playoffs. It will be their win loss record that keeps them out.
“When you have great players, playing great, well that’s great football!”
John Madden

fourthandshort
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Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:49 pm

saxman210 wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:37 pm
fourthandshort wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:19 pm
GOP_Redbird wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:09 pm


Kolbe had 3 years of game action to develop and that didn’t happen. Get over it.
So how long would you wait on Davis to figure this out ? Trend line is not good .. he has slipped every game and we haven't yet hit the meat of our schedule.
I would wait until the guys that see him and Kolbe in practice everyday determine that there’s been enough regression to give Kolbe a shot.

Or I would wait until there’s been enough regression to warrant starting a “win now and don’t worry about the future senior” in place of getting game reps for a sophomore/junior who could be the guy next year and the year after.

Or I would wait until Davis throws a couple of picks on bad decisions, or gets sacked for 20+ yards by holding onto the ball too long repeatedly, decisions that cost us a game.

I’m so sick of this argument. Kolbe lost the starting position to Davis. Davis is healthy. Kolbe will be there IF the coaching staff think he gives us the best shot to win. To this point, other than one series, the coaching staff hasn’t seen enough negative out of Davis OR positive out of Kolbe to warrant a change.
48% vs 71% in camp, and now we're faced with same accuracy concern I cited with camp stats. And he sure hasn't shown us he can run like many posters presumed ... recall that argument ? "He'll be a running threat that Kolbe isn't" ... ??

So here is summary of his first 2 games versus last 3 games .. also noting, the first 2 games were certainly the 2 easiest defenses we faced in the first 5 games:

Game Comp Att Comp %

STX 12 19 63%
EIU 17 23 74%
first2 29 42 69%

CSU 14 29 48%
MoST 20 38 53%
WIU 11 25 44%
last3 45 92 49%

Yes he has 10 TDs and no Picks, but it is evident his accuracy is slipping .. possibly because he is trying so hard to avoid picks. But sub 50% comp % does not move chains and does not help keep defenses honest for our run game. WIU 2nd half proved that.

And now we're at heading into SIU game .. an easier defense, followed by 3 top defenses in MVFC .. NDSU, SDSU, UNI .. then InSU and YSU ... So I think it would be a coaching mistake to not to be getting Kolbe meaningful game reps this week against SIU .. at the very latest.

Not fair to Kolbe or Beathard or team to throw Kolbe in to save the offense against NDSU, SDSU, or UNI. Got to start developing that timing and chemistry.
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fourthandshort
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Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:26 pm

Also the notion perpetuated by some posters that Kolbe gets sacked a lot for a lot of yards .. for MVFC 2017, we were 5th in Sacks per Game, 2nd lowest in Yards per Sack at 5.5. This with a young banged up OL and weak WR group:

# Team G S Yds Yds/G Yds/S
1 SIU 11 10 54 0.91 5.4
2 WIU 12 22 128 1.83 5.8
3 NDSU 15 22 152 1.47 6.9
4 SDSU 14 23 145 1.64 6.3
5 InSU 11 24 173 2.18 7.2
5 ISU 11 24 133 2.18 5.5
7 MoST 11 25 165 2.27 6.6
8 USD 13 27 149 2.08 5.5
9 UNI 13 32 252 2.46 7.9
10 YSU 11 36 192 3.27 5.3

In 2016, we were around 9th in both of these stats with a better OL .. so yes, as I've acknowledged before, Kolbe struggled in pocket in 2016 despite good passing stats. But he was much improved in pocket in 2017 despite a weak OL.

So the notion that Kolbe took a lot of avoidable sacks last year is wrong.

FYI, our RBs had a lot of trouble getting out of backfield the prior 2 years as well .. here is Negative Yards as % of Total Positive Yards by year ... negative yards are way down this year. Of the 94 this year, 41 came in WIU game.

Years Total Yds Neg. Yards Neg Yd %'
2018 1,084 94 8.7%
2017 2,341 333 14.2%
2016 2,290 408 17.8%

As for Kolbe's contribution to negative yards ...

In 2017, Kolbe had just 122 of the 333 negative yards. In 2016, Kolbe had 289 of the 408 negative yards. Again, our OL was much worse in 2017 ... yet Kolbe did way better in pocket, at same time our RBs had tougher time getting out of backfield. Undoubtedly, Kolbe was avoiding sacks under a lot more duress in 2017 ... and his passing stats suffered.

The debate is, what could he be doing with this years OL, OC, and WR group ... compared to Davis.
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TIMMY
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Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:50 pm

Geez our coaches must be goofs.
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ChiRedbirdfan
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Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:04 pm

fourthandshort wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:26 pm
Also the notion perpetuated by some posters that Kolbe gets sacked a lot for a lot of yards .. for MVFC 2017, we were 5th in Sacks per Game, 2nd lowest in Yards per Sack at 5.5. This with a young banged up OL and weak WR group:

# Team G S Yds Yds/G Yds/S
1 SIU 11 10 54 0.91 5.4
2 WIU 12 22 128 1.83 5.8
3 NDSU 15 22 152 1.47 6.9
4 SDSU 14 23 145 1.64 6.3
5 InSU 11 24 173 2.18 7.2
5 ISU 11 24 133 2.18 5.5
7 MoST 11 25 165 2.27 6.6
8 USD 13 27 149 2.08 5.5
9 UNI 13 32 252 2.46 7.9
10 YSU 11 36 192 3.27 5.3

In 2016, we were around 9th in both of these stats with a better OL .. so yes, as I've acknowledged before, Kolbe struggled in pocket in 2016 despite good passing stats. But he was much improved in pocket in 2017 despite a weak OL.

So the notion that Kolbe took a lot of avoidable sacks last year is wrong.

FYI, our RBs had a lot of trouble getting out of backfield the prior 2 years as well .. here is Negative Yards as % of Total Positive Yards by year ... negative yards are way down this year. Of the 94 this year, 41 came in WIU game.

Years Total Yds Neg. Yards Neg Yd %'
2018 1,084 94 8.7%
2017 2,341 333 14.2%
2016 2,290 408 17.8%

As for Kolbe's contribution to negative yards ...

In 2017, Kolbe had just 122 of the 333 negative yards. In 2016, Kolbe had 289 of the 408 negative yards. Again, our OL was much worse in 2017 ... yet Kolbe did way better in pocket, at same time our RBs had tougher time getting out of backfield. Undoubtedly, Kolbe was avoiding sacks under a lot more duress in 2017 ... and his passing stats suffered.

The debate is, what could he be doing with this years OL, OC, and WR group ... compared to Davis.
How did Kolbe perform statistically regarding the most important stat...wins vs losses as a qb?

ekeyfanclub
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Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:16 pm

Can we stop using completion percentage from practice reports as evidence of anything? They mean absolutely nothing since they lack zero context. Also completion percentage is not a great stat to judge qb play. You can have a ridiculous high completion percentage by throwing nothing but check downs.

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GOP_Redbird
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Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:30 pm

How many fumbles does Davis have? Kolbe had at least 20.

Fourth and Short.......E-S-P-N


WRONG!

fourthandshort
Senior
Posts: 1529
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Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:15 pm

ekeyfanclub wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:16 pm
Can we stop using completion percentage from practice reports as evidence of anything? They mean absolutely nothing since they lack zero context. Also completion percentage is not a great stat to judge qb play. You can have a ridiculous high completion percentage by throwing nothing but check downs.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
It is simply an indication to consider based on the only 3 scrimmages they reported full stats .. apples to apples and an objective sample size. I provided that in contrast to his first 2 games versus his last 3 games to point out my original concern is now becoming an issue.

If Kolbe were in this funk, many of you would be screaming for him to be benched immediately and you would be right to if situation were reversed. One more easier defense .. then we see how we do against the big 3. Id rather Kolbe had some tune up before those games. Not saying Davis is NOT the future or won't figure it out eventually.. just saying it is more doubtful .. so get Kolbe ready just in case.
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fourthandshort
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Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:22 pm

ChiRedbirdfan wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:04 pm
fourthandshort wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:26 pm
Also the notion perpetuated by some posters that Kolbe gets sacked a lot for a lot of yards .. for MVFC 2017, we were 5th in Sacks per Game, 2nd lowest in Yards per Sack at 5.5. This with a young banged up OL and weak WR group:

# Team G S Yds Yds/G Yds/S
1 SIU 11 10 54 0.91 5.4
2 WIU 12 22 128 1.83 5.8
3 NDSU 15 22 152 1.47 6.9
4 SDSU 14 23 145 1.64 6.3
5 InSU 11 24 173 2.18 7.2
5 ISU 11 24 133 2.18 5.5
7 MoST 11 25 165 2.27 6.6
8 USD 13 27 149 2.08 5.5
9 UNI 13 32 252 2.46 7.9
10 YSU 11 36 192 3.27 5.3

In 2016, we were around 9th in both of these stats with a better OL .. so yes, as I've acknowledged before, Kolbe struggled in pocket in 2016 despite good passing stats. But he was much improved in pocket in 2017 despite a weak OL.

So the notion that Kolbe took a lot of avoidable sacks last year is wrong.

FYI, our RBs had a lot of trouble getting out of backfield the prior 2 years as well .. here is Negative Yards as % of Total Positive Yards by year ... negative yards are way down this year. Of the 94 this year, 41 came in WIU game.

Years Total Yds Neg. Yards Neg Yd %'
2018 1,084 94 8.7%
2017 2,341 333 14.2%
2016 2,290 408 17.8%

As for Kolbe's contribution to negative yards ...

In 2017, Kolbe had just 122 of the 333 negative yards. In 2016, Kolbe had 289 of the 408 negative yards. Again, our OL was much worse in 2017 ... yet Kolbe did way better in pocket, at same time our RBs had tougher time getting out of backfield. Undoubtedly, Kolbe was avoiding sacks under a lot more duress in 2017 ... and his passing stats suffered.

The debate is, what could he be doing with this years OL, OC, and WR group ... compared to Davis.
How did Kolbe perform statistically regarding the most important stat...wins vs losses as a qb?
You think Davis won that WIU game for us ? Quite the opposite.

And right ... let's ignore all our other 2017 offensive problems with OL WRs and fact that Spack cleaned house on offensive side with coaches. Forget all that ... blame the QB.

Just saying, we should get him reps just in case.
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fourthandshort
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Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:37 pm

GOP_Redbird wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:30 pm
How many fumbles does Davis have? Kolbe had at least 20.

Fourth and Short.......E-S-P-N


WRONG!
"at least 20" ? did you just make that number up ?

Fact check .. in 2017, the team had 20 total fumbles, of which we lost 10. Kolbe had just 4 total fumbles, with only 2 were lost fumbles. Broadnax had more fumbles than Kolbe and played maybe 10% of the offensive snaps all year.

Please don't make sh-t up like that and post on public forum ,.. it is very irresponsible.
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