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MVC: school "strength" of OOC schedule [2018-2019] ... NOW based on pre-season average ranking

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Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:04 pm

Sat Nov 10, 2018 3:52 pm

I went through each school's non-conference schedule and calculated an overall average ranking (based on the pre-season rankings from seven sources (Barstool Sports, CBS Sports, Hero Sports, Pomeroy, Sagarin, Sports Illustrated and TSJ101 Sports) that provided rankings for all 353 institutions.

If a school is in a tournament, the opponents were weighted based on the round in which as school would play them (for example, the Redbirds have a 100% chance to play the Bulldogs, a 50% chance to play either the Tigers or Zips (equals 100), and a 25% chance to play one of the Bonnies, Bluejays, Broncos or Panthers (equals 100); ISU could end up with a better rating if they play Clemson & Creighton or a worse rating if they play Akron & Saint Bonaventure).

Finally, non-Division I opponents are excluded.

NOTE: This could be better if there was any sort consensus as to which pre-season ranking(s) were considered most accurate; however, by taking an overall average it should reduce any gross anomalies that may result.

First, the overall out of conference schedule strength rating per school (a median Division I rating would be 177).

1.) Indiana State: 135
2.) Illinois State: 138
3.) Northern Iowa: 147
4.) Valparaiso: 151
5.) Evansville: 156
6.) Southern Illinois: 162
7.) Loyola-Chicago: 169
8.) Drake: 174
9.) Missouri State: 183
10.) Bradley: 193

Quick glimpse for each school (best and worse (with this pre-season's ranking average) and any non-DI opposition).

best: vs Southern Methodist [85] {could face vs Penn State [82]}
worst: Chicago State [349]
non-DI: Wisconsin-Parkside

best: vs Iowa State [47]
worst: Southern Illinois-Edwardsville [321]
non-DI: Buena Vista, McKendree

best: at Xavier [37]
worst: Texas Southern [284]
non-DI: Albion, Kentucky Wesleyan

Illinois State
best: at Central Florida [38] {could face vs Clemson [19]}
worst: Chicago State [349]
non-DI: Lindenwood

Indiana State
best: at Texas Christian [25]
worst: at San Jose State [305]
non-DI: McKendree, Truman State

best: Nevada [10]
worst: Norfolk State [304]
non-DI: Benedictine (Illinois)

Missouri State
best: vs Nebraska [30]
worst: Arkansas-Pine Bluff [329]
non-DI: William Woods

Northern Iowa
best: vs Iowa [61] {could face vs Kansas State [11]}
worst: North Dakota [252] {could face vs Kennesaw State [325]}
non-DI: Bemidji State, Dubuque

Southern Illinois
best: at Kentucky [3]
worst: Arkansas-Pine Bluff [329]
non-DI: none

best: at West Virginia [12]
worst: Southern Illinois-Edwardsville [321]
non-DI: Concordia-Chicago, Purdue Northwest

Finally, list of all opponents in pre-season ranking average order (undetermined tournament opposition listed at bottom for each school):

Loyola-Chicago [50]
Nevada [10]
at Maryland [31]
at Saint Joseph's [84]
Ball State [122]
Furman [141]
at Illinois-Chicago [163]
vs Richmond [178]
Niagara [293]
Grambling State [296]
Missouri-Kansas City [303]
Norfolk State [304]
Benedictine (Illinois) [n/a]
vs Boston College [66]/Wyoming [138]

Illinois State [77]
at Central Florida [38]
San Diego State [52]
Brigham Young [58]
vs Georgia [94]
at Belmont [95]
Mississippi [118]
at Illinois-Chicago [163]
Florida Gulf Coast [203]
Cleveland State [290]
Chicago State [349]
Lindenwood [n/a]
vs Clemson [19]/Akron [173]
vs Creighton [63]/Georgia State [102]/Boise State [108]/Saint Bonaventure [128]

Southern Illinois [97]
at Kentucky [3]
Buffalo [62]
at Buffalo [62]
Saint Louis [64]
Murray State [117]
vs Massachusetts [144]
at Colorado State [153]
Winthrop [188]
at Southeast Missouri State [291]
Howard [312]
at Southern Illinois-Edwardsville [321]
Arkansas-Pine Bluff [329]
vs Nevada [10]/Tulsa [112]

Bradley [135]
vs Southern Methodist [85]
New Mexico [96]
at Georgia Southern [130]
Jacksonville State [137]
at Illinois-Chicago [163]
Southeastern Louisiana [201]
Eastern Illinois [234]
at Indiana/Purdue-Indianapolis [253]
at Arkansas-Little Rock [280]
Southeast Missouri State [291]
Chicago State [349]
Wisconsin-Parkside [n/a]
vs Penn State [82]/Wright State [115]

Northern Iowa [139]
vs Iowa [61]
vs South Dakota State [76]
at Old Dominion [93]
Grand Canyon [111]
vs Pennsylvania [142]
at Utah State [168]
Stony Brook [213]
at Texas-Arlington [239]
North Dakota [252]
Bemidji State [n/a]
Dubuque [n/a]
vs Kansas State [11]/Eastern Kentucky [237]
vs Missouri [53]/Oregon State [92]/Old Dominion [93]/Kennesaw State [325]

Indiana State [156]
at Texas Christian [25]
Western Kentucky [55]
vs Colorado [74]
Wright State [115]
at Ball State [122]
North Texas [124]
at Wisconsin-Green Bay [227]
at San Jose State [305]
McKendree [n/a]
Truman State [n/a]
vs Nevada-Las Vegas [119]/at Hawaii [191]
vs Texas Christian [25]/Rhode Island [98]/Bucknell [164]/North Carolina-Charlotte [292]

Valparaiso [158]
at West Virginia [12]
vs Western Kentucky [55]
at Texas A&M [75]
at Nevada-Las Vegas [119]
Ball State [122]
at George Washington [206]
High Point [261]
California-Riverside [285]
Southern Illinois-Edwardsville [321]
Purdue Northwest [n/a]
Concordia-Chicago [n/a]
vs West Virginia [12]/Monmouth [223]
vs Central Florida [38]/Saint Joseph's [84]/Wake Forest [103]/California State-Fullerton [145]

Missouri State [162]
vs Nebraska [30]
Western Kentucky [55]
at Oregon State [92]
at Murray State [117]
at North Dakota State [196]
at Air Force [224]
Oral Roberts [256]
at Arkansas State [270]
Robert Morris [271]
Stetson [322]
Arkansas-Pine Bluff [329]
William Woods [n/a]
vs Texas Tech [35]/Southern California [44]

Drake [193]
vs Iowa State [47]
at Colorado [74]
vs New Mexico State [86]
Boise State [108]
Rider [120]
vs North Dakota State [196]
Texas State [243]
at Wisconsin-Milwaukee [258]
at Missouri-Kansas City [303]
Southern Illinois-Edwardsville [321]
McKendree [n/a]
Buena Vista [n/a]
vs San Diego [136]/Washington State [181]

Evansville [194]
at Xavier [37]
at Illinois [90]
at Murray State [117]
Ball State [122]
at Ball State [122]
Jacksonville State [137]
Wyoming [138]
at Miami (Ohio) [180]
Wisconsin-Green Bay [227]
at Arkansas State [270]
Texas Southern [284]
Kentucky Wesleyan [n/a]
Albion [n/a]
no matter where you go ... there you are
bb fan
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:44 am

Sat Nov 10, 2018 4:51 pm

Good stuff. Thanks ISU86.
Posts: 108
Joined: Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:23 pm

Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:58 pm

Nice info!!! Thanks for the work to put this together ISU86
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